Climate Change

my rough beliefs (Jul'2024)

it's definitely happening
it's almost-certainly mostly human action (mostly burning fossil fuels, but also causing wildfires)
it will probably be catastrophic for a big portion of the world - esp places where it's already hot, where they're near and just-above ocean-level.
we've been failing to make the costs of fossil fuels real/transparent - when oil prices have gone up due to Russia/Ukraine war, many governments have subsidized fuel use; and of course SUVs are more and more the primary US car-purchase
we need a Carbon Tax and a Water Tax (Clean Water)
- cf energy/water used by web3 and then GenAI

my rough beliefs (Jun'2006)

Global Warming is almost certainly happening
there's much less certainty as to how much of it is due to human action vs just variation (Little Ice Age vs Medieval Warm Period)
there's even less certainty as to how catastrophic the effects will be
- see David Friedman
there's even less certainty as to whether any realistic changes in human action could reverse/stop the effect
- and how extreme the Side Effects would be
  - GeoEngineering could really screw up (see SnowPiercer)
  - increasing energy costs could increase starvation
some Public Policy that might make sense
- end various forms of subsidy of Cheap Oil to make its true costs (Energy Accounting) more transparent, thus supporting increased investment in new technology that might help (Technological Determinism)
- Carbon Tax
- ???

Bill Seitz