Thinking In Bets

The mental practice of acknowledging the uncertainty/risk of every belief or decision or action.

Phrase comes from Thinking In Bets by Annie Duke ISBN:0735216371

cf Little Bet (compounding results through learning), Model (Model building), Belief, Experiment, Scientific Method, Prediction Market, Disputation Arena

Perception, Interpretation

2017-08-08-GerransLethePsychedelicsWorkByViolatingOurModelsOfSelfAndTheWorld

Digital Philosophy

Action

Life

• Effective Entrepreneur
• Intervention Roulette
• Experiment Without Limits - hmm only a tiny bit in there, despite the title
• Model Agnosticism
• Claim-Refactoring Service
• related: incremental/trial (Little-Bet) models: Apprenticeship, Stair-step, Side-gig...

Public Policy

• Futarchy
• Claim-Refactoring Service

Product Management

• Data-Informed Product Management, Quadruple-Loop Product Management
• North Star Playbook
• Shape Up
• (2011-04-20) Lean Agile Production Vs Theory Building
• Portfolio

OODA, loops All The Way Down